William T. Ziemba, UBC

This talk traces the US stock market and it’s interaction with other financial and equity markets around the world focusing on the recent period 1996-2001. A historical record for the past 100 plus years will serve as background. A review of the Japanese 1949-1989 rise and the 1990-2001 decline sets the stage to focus on the US. We see a dramatic rise from 1996 to early 2000 during which two variables dominated:  size and momentum.  Then we see a decline in the rest of 2000 and the emergence of a bear market in February/March 2001. As usual interest rates and earnings play a key role but other factors are involved. Bubble versus changing fundamentals is discussed in Japan and in the US Nasdaq. The behavior of various signals and anomaly ideas are assessed.  The wealth effect and a scorecard of the losers and winners will also be discussed.